The Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) previously reported that H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, would increase the primary deficit by $2.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period.[1] That estimate reflects a $3.7 trillion reduction in revenues and a $1.3 trillion reduction in noninterest outlays.[2] It does not account for how the bill would affect the economy.
Under House Rule XIII(8), H.R. 1 is classified as major legislation and CBO and JCT are required, to the extent practicable, to account for the budgetary effects of changes in the economy resulting from the bill. CBO and JCT have now had time to complete that analysis and estimate the following relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline:
- The economic effects of H.R. 1 would decrease the primary deficit by $85 billion over the 2025-2034 period, primarily reflecting an increase in economic output; and
- The bill would increase interest rates, which would boost interest payments on the baseline projection of federal debt by $441 billion.
Accounting for those budgetary effects, CBO’s estimate under House Rule XIII(8) is that H.R. 1 would increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the 2025-2034 period